Flash and Web Based Applications

Check out this article!

Recently I read an article by Jakob Nielsen (link above). The article is a little outdated (2002) but was still very interesting. Jakob took a sample of user's ability to find and use a flash application within a website, he used 46 different applications for the sample.
The percentages that Jakob gives are pretty amazing, almost half of the users could not find the application, especially if the application was promoted by a big colorful box, or with animated text. They found that if the applications was promoted in such a way that users would ignore the links, this was due to the fact that they assumed the box was an advertisement and the user didn't want to waste time looking at the ad.
When the users were finally shown, or found the application on their own, a surprisingly low percentage of users had the ability to navigate through the applications. And the final outcome was thought that a user would most likely click away from the site due to frustration.
The article reminded me much of a book that I read last year called "The Inmates Are Running The Asylum", the book is extremely good and really helps a programmer to recognize what they are doing that is driving the users crazy. In the book it relates software to a dancing bear, the bear is amazing and at first site is better than anything a person has ever seen. However underneath the phenomenon of the dancing bear is the fact that the bear truly serves no purpose. So it is with GUI that is over the top, or which promotes features rather than function. If the application is difficult to use then most of the time the user will walk away from it.
Although this article is dated I believe it is still somewhat relevant. Sure users are more accustomed to flash applications within sites, and the ways that these applications are linked to or used has most likely changed drastically, much of this article still applies as far as the design of the site and application are concerned.
Applications need to be user friendly, not only that but they need to accomplish what the users goals are. If the application is fancy and flashy then the user will most likely click away from it, however if it successfully accomplishes the user's objectives then the user will most likely return to it later for more use.
Nielsen talks a lot about the fact that a web application is often only used once, and that if the user has a bad experience they will never return to it, they will find something else. Unlike desktop software which is often required to learn a user most likely does not need the web based application which they have found on a daily basis and will do what they can not to return to it if it does not EASILY do what they need it to do.
It is true however that today many people do not see a flash application as much more than a web based tool, and are most likely used to them in the sense that they can easily learn to navigate through them. This may be in part to the fact that the users have learned and matured with the changes in web usage in the past 7 years, or that developers, designers and managers have figured out the most efficient ways to create these applications. Although the article was informative and well written, it is hard for me to believe that it is completely applicable to today's user base. However I could be mistaken.

What do you think?